2011, What’s in Store… Happy New Year and may 2011 investing be as profitable as 2010. As we enter 2011 we can expect a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. Emerging markets continue their growth while the U.S. hangs on and Europe fights for survival under mountains of debt and devaluing currencies. Since August, when Ben…
THE ECONOMY: QE2 is all over the news these days and I am not referring to the transatlantic ocean liner. Quantitative Easing, part II, Ben Bernanke style, includes another $600 Billion of money-printing with another $200B-$300B of rollover (notes due and being refinanced). The Fed’s idea was to keep interest rates near zero by purchasing…
ECONOMY In March 2009, the Fed began its “shock and awe” experiment with “quantitative easing” (QE-1) buying $1.75- trillion in Treasury and mortgage backed securities (MBS’s). The fed funds rate was slashed to 0.25%, yet US-banks weren’t lending the excess cash to the private sector. Even after the first round of QE ended in March…
Yuan up, dollar down, gold up, U.S. GDP down, emerging markets up, housing prices down, government spending up, sentiment down, unemployment up, and markets up and down. Sounds a bit disjointed, but actually it all paints a fairly consistent picture. MARKETS UP AND DOWN August was the worst month for the overall markets since the…
I am often asked, “How can you square weak economic numbers with strong corporate profits and a good investment environment?” Though seemingly contradictory, it is not as strange as it sounds. First, economic numbers, like GDP growth, are seasonally adjusted and compared to the previous quarter, while corporate profits are generally quoted on a year…
Individual investors and business appear to be on hold, wondering about the economy, company earnings, and the next blow from Washington. Quarterly earnings reports will begin next week and though the economy may be slow, I expect earnings to look good. Then we have the mid-term elections just over four months away, where we can…
The jury is still out on whether this bull run will continue or not. In the past five recessions, the following bull markets have each experienced 3 to 6 bearish retreats, while the bull continued to run. The major U.S. indexes have now retreated about 12% each, in the last month, while most overseas indexes…
Market View April 19, 2010 Goldman, Gold, & The Dollar Goldman: More interesting is the the single player named in the suit, Fabrice Tourre, who is not listed as an officer of Goldman, just a junior Vice President. Are we to believe that a 31-year old junior vice president had the unsupervised…
Market View March 12, 2010 I’ve written many times about the dollar and how Washington’s full assault on the taxpayer will continue to devalue the dollar, crumbling the finances of unsuspecting and/or unprepared citizens. Without the “healthcare” bill which should put a final nail in the dollar’s coffin, the national debt is estimated…
“Cue the Helicopters – Dollar Devaluation is Here” March 24, 2009 The world’s financial powers seem to understand that the U.S. needs to print its way out of this mess. In my Forbes.com column on Dec. 9, 2008, “Dollar Devaluation To Fix The Great Recession,” I suggested that the government consider an overnight devaluation of…