It is likely that you’ve heard (probably many times) that the bull-market is old – one of the oldest in history. 1st, bull markets don’t die of old age and 2nd, this one has been hampered by over-regulation and anti-business sentiment for much of its life.
It has been nice to have 13 consecutive months without a decline in market indexes. We know it is uncomfortable when the market drops. On Monday (2/5/18), we saw the computers trigger heavy selling when the S&P 500 dropped below its 50-day moving average.
Tax reform has created meaningful economic effects and significant investment opportunities. We discuss those opportunities, the impact of rising interest rates, and our investment themes for 2018 in this quarter’s report.
In this report we discuss Congress’ progress on the reform agenda, market valuation, and several of our investment themes for the second half of 2017.
Since the November election, the media, investors and the public have been focused on the reform agenda in Washington. We believe the economy has a real opportunity to accelerate once Congress makes meaningful progress
The 115th Congress is seated and the new Administration will take office in several days. We believe fiscal policy changes will provide significant investment opportunities, but selectivity will be necessary as there will be winners and losers.
To say the stock market is disliked is an understatement. Investors have withdrawn money from actively managed mutual funds for over 18 months. Yet the picture is relatively positive
Last week the WisdomTree Australia Debt ETF (AUNZ) lost 88% of its assets in one day. Franklin/Templeton, the $21 billion manager of mutual and other investment funds decided to liquidate its entire position in AUNZ, leaving a paltry $19 million left in the ETF.
The economic numbers out of the UK this week shocked many in the press. The numbers were positive. We are not surprised. We are also not surprised that the UK has not yet begun the formal process for BREXIT. In our notes of July 16 we wrote that a vote by the UK to leave the EU…
For the U.S stock market, we believe the volatility driven by Brexit will be short-lived. We suspect that in a year or two we will look back and wonder what the fuss was all about. We are even more confident in five years that will indeed be the case.
We continue to view the bond market as a “return-free risk”. It is a very crowded trade, as institutions and individuals have fled what they perceive as riskier equity assets, for what they believe is solid income generated by bonds. Yet, with yields as low as they are today, it only takes a small move down in bond prices to wipe out…
The stock market started off the year exceptionally weak, with all major market indexes down double digit percentages going into the low on February 11. We believe much of the weakness was due to selling by foreign sovereign wealth funds, where the related country’s fiscal budget is heavily affected by the price of crude oil.